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集中投資vs.分散投資

Of course, some investment strategies - for instance, our efforts in arbitrage over the years - require wide diversification. If significant risk exists in a single transaction, overall risk should be reduced by making that purchase one of many mutually-independent commitments. Thus, you may consciously purchase a risky investment - one that indeed has a significant possibility of causing loss or injury - if you believe that your gain, weighted for 集中投資vs.分散投資 probabilities, considerably exceeds your loss, comparably weighted, and if 集中投資vs.分散投資 you can commit to a number of similar, but unrelated opportunities. Most venture capitalists employ this strategy. Should you choose to pursue this course, you should adopt the outlook of the casino that owns a roulette wheel, which will want to see lots of action because it is favored by probabilities, but will refuse to accept a single, 集中投資vs.分散投資 集中投資vs.分散投資 huge bet.
---------Warren Buffett’s Letters to Berkshire Shareholders, 1993.

淺談巴菲特投資概念●6.集中投資與分散投資

Our policy is to concentrate holdings. We try to avoid buying a little of this or that when we are only lukewarm about the business or its price. When we are convinced as to attractiveness, we believe in 集中投資vs.分散投資 buying worthwhile amounts.
---------Warren Buffett’s Letters to Berkshire Shareholders, 1978.

分散投資,雞蛋不要放在同一個籃子裡! 」上面這句話我想大家都耳熟能詳,而且說這話的通常也都是專家,但是巴菲特卻是主張「集中投資」,巴菲特說這話的道理是什麼?想要了解巴菲特選擇集中投資的理由,我們必須從葛拉漢與費雪的投資組合哲學來分析,因為即使是這兩位投資大師,他們對於集中持股或是分散持股的主張也不太相同。

費雪主張不要過度強調分散投資 ,也可以說是主張集中投資 ,建議的持股數為5~20種股票,費雪認為某些公司的內部就已經算是分散投資了,而且光要充分了解那些公司也足夠花上全部心力,不瞭解公司比分散投資做得不足夠還危險。由此可見,費雪是屬於善於選擇個股的專業投資者,所以集中投資反而對費雪較適當。

分散投資還是集中投資?

經由以上分析,我想你應該已經發現了巴菲特和葛拉漢在投資組合哲學上的最大不同點,巴菲特沒有選擇葛拉漢的分散投資哲學, 他選了費雪的集中投資哲學,這是因為巴菲特會對公司進行詳細的分析,並且期望獲得較高的投資報酬率

Of course, some investment strategies - 集中投資vs.分散投資 for instance, our efforts in arbitrage over the years - require wide diversification. If significant risk exists in a single transaction, overall risk should be reduced by making that purchase one of many mutually-independent commitments. Thus, you may consciously purchase a risky investment - one that indeed has a significant possibility of causing loss or injury - if you believe that your gain, weighted for probabilities, considerably exceeds your loss, comparably weighted, and if you can commit to a number of similar, but unrelated opportunities. Most venture capitalists employ this strategy. Should 集中投資vs.分散投資 you choose to pursue this course, you should adopt the outlook of the casino that owns a roulette wheel, which will want to see lots of action because it is favored by probabilities, but will refuse to accept a single, huge bet.
---------Warren Buffett’s Letters to Berkshire Shareholders, 1993.

當然,某些投資策略─例如:我們從事多年的套利活動─就需要廣泛的分散投資。如果在單一交易中存在顯著的風險,應該藉由購買相互獨立的東西來降低整體風險。因此,你可能會有意識地購買某項風險投資─那的確有顯著的可能性造成損失或傷害─如果你相信你的獲利 ( 以可能機率加權計算過 ) 超過你的損失 ( 同等地加權計算過 ) 頗多,以及如果你能做一些相同但不相關的機會的話。大多數的創投資金使用這策略,萬一你也選擇從事這做法的話,你應該採取擁有賭博輪盤的賭場之觀點,那就是會希望看到很多的交易,因為機率對賭場有利,但是會拒絕單次大量的賭注。

並不是所有的交易皆適合集中投資 ,因此巴菲特在這裡舉出了一個特殊的例子,那就是套利交易。以前的套利交易是指利用不同國家或地區利率的差異,將資金由利率較低的國家或地區轉移到利率較高的國家或地區,以從中獲得利息差異的獲利;現在的套利交易定義則已擴大到利用某些已公布的企業事件來獲利,例如:企業購併、企業重組等。

集中投資vs.分散投資

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投资理财应该集中投资还是分散投资?怎样分散投资?

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你的投資組合應該是分散投資還是集中投資(Concentrated or Diversified Portfolios)?(上)

不要把雞蛋放在同一個籃子,避免籃子打翻了所有的雞蛋都打破了,如果你是分散投資者,相信這句話你一定聽過,但如果你是集中投資者,那你一定聽過,把雞蛋通通放在同一個籃子,專心地看好它,不要讓他打翻了,我們的投資組合究竟應該是要分散還是集中(Concentrated or Diversified Portfolios)我們來閱讀Vanguard 在2019年發表的研究報告,How to increase the odds of owning the few stocks that drive returns,試圖來解答投資組合究竟是要分散還是集中?

股票市場的整體報酬主要是由少數的股票所貢獻

在這篇報告中統計Russell 3000 指數中的每個股票,分別自1987年至2017年,約30年期間的累積報酬,製成下圖。

  1. 有接近30%的股票累積報酬率落在-100%至-50%。
  2. 中位數股票累積平均報酬率是7%,也就是說後50%的股票,平均報酬率只有7%。
  3. 整體的股票累積平均報酬是387%。
  4. 最前面的7%的股票累積報酬率10000%以上。

如何透過統計模擬說明投資組合增加持股對報酬率的影響

增加投資組合的持股數可以提高正報酬的機率 集中投資vs.分散投資

上圖我們可以看到如果只單壓一隻股票當作投資策略,那麼報酬率能夠超越指數的機率只有11.1%,之後隨著投資的股票數量增加(Diversified Portfolios),超越指數的機率也逐漸的增加,當投資的股票達500支時,報酬率超越指數的機率也增加到48.4%。